Chinas economy, the worlds second-largest, is at a crossroads. Post-pandemic recovery has been less robust than expected, leading to mounting internal and external challenges. A shift in Chinas economic model seems inevitable, moving from a heavy reliance on economic stimulus to more sustainable, consumer-driven growth. This shift, however, raises fundamental questions about the efficacy of policy strategies employed over the past few decades.

For years, large-scale stimulus programs have fueled Chinas economic growth. In response to the 2008 financial crisis, China announced a $586 billion stimulus package, primarily invested in infrastructure and property markets. This government-led investment model provided short-term economic stability but also caused an explosion in debt and led to overcapacity in industries like steel, cement, and property.

Chinas response to economic slowdowns in 2012 and 2015 followed similar lines, with increased public spending, looser monetary policy, and directives encouraging lending to the corporate sector. These measures led to a further accumulation of corporate and local government debt.

The post China Economy Enters the Post-Stimulus Era appeared first on Geopolitical Monitor.

Smoking Mirrors July 5, 2023

God Poet Transmitting.

One of the basic features of Nature is camouflage. Sometimes it is there to attract prey, and sometimes it is there for concealment from the predator. Other times it is an aspect of the mating dance. All of this translates into the human theater because the dramas that dance there in physical form are a part of Nature in camouflage too.

Its not just your body that is a prisoner of Nature. The Mind and The Emotions the senses, and your sense of self as expressed through The Personality are also a part of Nature. Nature has a number of ways to bind you. I heard there were 8 but Im not a numbers guy. I also heard there is only one way in which Lady Nature a conscious entity frees you or provides what is called Moksha.

Terms terms terms; what did Lao Tzu say? Terms may be used but none of them are absolute.

Nature is a non-stop endlessly whirling confusion of colors and sounds tactile impressions smells that go directly to the brain, which is where the smell test comes from, and which has to do with smell as a form of higher perception having nothing to do with physical odors. Yes many things that you cant see are still part of Nature.

Its safe to say that just about everything you can think of is a part of Nature, including the facility that does the thinking. You might well ask; what else is there? I would answer that but its not germane to todays posting which has to do with Communism.

Communism is the form of government that exists in Hellish Circumstances. Communism is a form of camouflage that presents itself as something it is not for purposes other than what it advertises. It is a system of lies and double-speak Catch-22s whose intentions are bondage and control. It is a system where the individual has no rights and no courts of appeal.

It is a system of No Exit except for Death. It is a horror show glueboard that attracts stupid people by masquerading as what it is not what it is not what it is not.

It is what Diversity Equity and Inclusion are all about. It is the brainchild of a certain group of people who demonstrated in a gruesome and protracted fashion all you ever need to know about Communism. They did this in the former Soviet Socialist Republic. They did and are doing it in China. They did it in Cambodia. There is no positive example of it except in small controlled and temporary examples here and there now and again.

Communes are Communist experiments, and their success depends entirely on the nature and intentions of the people involved. Sometime...

Individually, each step is a small step barely picked up by the news. But in recent weeks, the world has been vibrating with multipolarity. Iran is a regional power that pursues a foreign policy that defies US hegemony and refuses to get in line with the unipolar world. Punishing that defiance is key to the Continue reading "As Americas Influence Wanes, Chinas Grows"

The post As Americas Influence Wanes, Chinas Grows appeared first on Antiwar.com Original.

By Joseph Solis-Mullen | The Libertarian Institute | July 5, 2023

Republicans are terrible on China. Examples abound, but perhaps the most instructive illustration of this long-term handicap comes from the following quotation:

We must be prepared to go it alone in China if our allies desert us. We must not fool ourselves into thinking we can avoid taking up arms with the Chinese Reds. If we dont fight them in China and Formosa [Taiwan] well be fighting them in San Francisco, in Seattle, in Kansas City.¹

This wasnt excerpted from a recent speech by Senator Tom Cotton (R-AK). Rather, it was by then-Senate Majority Leader William Knowland (R-CA), in the January 1954 edition of Colliers Magazine. While perhaps particularly rabid in his Sinophobia, President Dwight D. Eisenhower privately opined that Knowland has no foreign policy, except to develop high blood pressure whenever he mentions Red ChinaIn his case, there seems to be no final answer to the question, How stupid can you get?² The parallels between Knowlands time and our own are significant. Representing the respective nadirs of Sino-American relations, they are worth considering in depth.

First, a necessary bit of high-level background.

In 1949 Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist Party defeated the nominally republican forces of Chiang Kai-shek. Despite internal warnings that this was likely to happen, Chiang and his nationalist cronies being thieves, every last one of themcorrupt as they come according to President Harry Truman, this kicked off a firestorm in Washington³. Who lost China? subsequently became a driving force of the Second Red Scare that consumed American politics, distorting perceptions and constraining the ability of even the most powerful figures, such as Eisenhower or Secretary of State Dean Acheson, to act towards China in the more rational manner they would have liked.

Dean Acheson had presciently forecast as early as 1950 that Mao could be an Asian Tito, a disruptor of communist unity akin to the Yugoslav leader, Josip Broz Tito, Stalins bte noire. As...

By Viktor Mikhin New Eastern Outlook 05.07.2023

There are increasing reports in the world media that the US-led NATO military alliance is planning to expand into the Asia-Pacific region. The idea was originally introduced by US President Joe Biden at the East Asia Summit on October 27, 2021, where he said: We envision an Indo-Pacific region that is open, interconnected, prosperous, resilient and secure and we are ready to work together with each of you to achieve this. The White House later issued a report titled Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States on February 11, 2022, outlining President Joe Bidens strategy to reestablish American leadership in the Indo-Pacific region.

Among the remarks in the so-called newsletter that stood out was the declared necessity for the US to strengthen ties with Asian countries in order to tackle the urgent task of competing with China. But, according to its authors, NATO, which was formed to defend Europe against a fabricated Soviet threat, is allegedly a peace-loving alliance. In reality, it has evolved into a militarily aggressive bloc with a dominant presence in the North Atlantic region. This peace-loving coalition has militarized the continent to the point where war has broken out in Europe for the first time since World War II.

The question arises, do the countries of the Asia-Pacific region want to see their region also heavily militarized under the strict guardianship not only of the United States, but also of European peace-loving NATO? Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of this peace-loving bloc, insists on increasing the military alliances activities in Asia, as he stated publicly earlier this year during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The peacemaker from Europe said: What happens in Asia matters for Europe and what happens in Europe matters for Asia, and therefore it is even more important that NATO Allies are strengthening our partnership with our Indo Pacific partners.

According to Japans Nikkei newspaper, NATO will establish a liaison office in Tokyo in 2024 and use it as a center for cooperation with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. Geographically, these four countries are close to China and other states in the region. It should be emphasized that they are all strategically placed in the Asia-Pacific region and have common interests with the US and NATO, or serve them faithfully.

It doesnt take a genius to figure out that their target in this situation is China. Speaking at a May 26 press briefing, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson rightly noted that NATOs attempt to intervene in the Asia-Pacific region eastward would inevitably undermine regional peace and stability...

The addition of Iran as the ninth full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an influential security and trade alliance, has been welcomed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During the 23rd virtual summit of the SCO hosted by India, Iran officially became a full-fledged Continue reading Iran Becomes the 9th Member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization

By Ekaterina Blinova Sputnik 04.07.2023

Chinas ban is a response to the Wests not-so-well thought out strategy of economically decoupling from the Peoples Republic, Asia-Pacific consultant Thomas W. Pauken told Sputnik.

China has imposed restrictions on exporting two strategic raw materials, gallium and germanium, which are crucial for the worlds electronic chip-making industry. The US mainstream press called Beijings move a second counter-measure in the unfolding Sino-American tech confrontation, which followed the Peoples Republic sanctioning Americas Micron Technology (MU) in May.

Last October, the Biden administration unveiled an unprecedented set of export controls that restricted Chinese companies from purchasing advanced chips made anywhere in the world using US technology, as well as chip-making equipment.

The US media noted at the time that Washingtons move would thwart Chinas technological ambitions, bragging that the global semiconductor industry was almost entirely dependent on the US and its allies. Now American newspapers are admitting China has played a trump card in the chip war.

I find it rather laughable that [the Biden regime] actually thought that theyre going to win this tech war, Thomas W. Pauken II, the author of US vs China: From Trade War to Reciprocal Deal, and a consultant on Asia-Pacific affairs, told Sputnik. You dont have access to the rare earth, you dont have access to the supply chains in order to produce these electronics youre totally destroyed, youre devastated, the US knew about this. They knew how much they were reliant on the rare earths. They knew how much they had to rely on China in order to reshore their factories. And instead of trying to find ways to cooperate, they just decided to go ahead and just do these nasty, terrible attacks against China and then just somehow think theyre going to score a victory here.

Why Didnt Team Biden See This Coming?

The Peoples Republic boasts 63% of the worlds rare earth mining, 85% of processing, and 92% of magnet production. As per the 2022 US Geological Survey, between 2017 and 2020 the United States imported a whopping 78% of its rare earth metals from China, followed by Estonia (6%), Malaysia (5%) and Japan (4%).

Back in 2019, the Asian giant warned the Trump administration about including rare earths in Beijings technology-export restrictions, as Washington stepped up pressure on Chinese telecom firm Huawei. Donald Trump&#821...

By Liu Xuanzun Global Times July 4, 2023

Chinas recently announced export controls on gallium could hit the US defense industry, as this material, with China being the leading producer and supplier in the world, is widely used in advanced radar systems installed on warplanes, warships and ground installations, experts said on Tuesday.

Starting August 1, China will impose export controls on gallium and germanium as well as several chemical compounds involving the two materials, according to a notice Chinas Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs released on Monday.

Items meeting certain characteristics shall not be exported without approval, the notice stated.

The move aims to safeguard national security and interests, it said.

Gallium and germanium are used in the making of semiconductors and other electronic components, observers said.

Chinese military analysts said that the export controls, particularly those on gallium, could hit the US defense industry at a time when the US is attempting to militarily contain Chinas development.

Gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN) are the most basic materials in the making of the transmit receive modules on active electronic scanning array (AESA) radars, which are widely used on modern warplanes, warships and ground installations, Fu Qianshao, a Chinese military aviation expert, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

For example, US defense companies Raytheon and Northrop Grumman are reportedly introducing new AESA radar systems based on GaN, which provide superior performance than previously used GaAs. The latest radars for the F/A-18E/F carrier-based fighter jet and the F-35 stealth fighter jet also incorporate GaN.

Both GaN and GaAs are included on Chinas list of export controls.

China accounts for about 85 percent of global gallium reserves, meaning that it is unlikely for the US and other Western countries to avoid using the Chinese materials without significant cost, Fu said.

The US frequently deploys its warplanes and warships on Chinas doorsteps for close-in reconnaissance, provocative transits and exercises as well as showcasing deterrence purposes, in addition to continuing arms sales to the island of Taiwan, which are obvious attempts to contain Chinas development and harm Chinas national security and interests, analysts said.

Iran joins Shanghai Cooperation Organisation